Celebration of a strong 2016

This Chinese New Year, we celebrate the 15th anniversary of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. GDP per capita now exceeds US$8,500, up from US$1,200 in 2001, and the World Bank classifies China as a middle-high income society. Morgan Stanley believes China will achieve high-income status by 2027, yet China only ranks as the 75th richest nation per capita on earth. There is still a long way to go.

Highlights from our businesses
The strength of the Chinese consumer delivered for our companies this year, dwarfing any drag from the more sluggish aspects of the broader economy. Our businesses continued to grow revenue, with profits rising and the following notable accomplishments:

– Yeehoo ranked as China’s top babywear brand, tripled its November 11 Single’s Day e-commerce revenue, and attracted numerous suitors
– Castle Snacks completed two further acquisitions and reached domestic-IPO scale
– Lao Heng He quadrupled e-commerce sales growth, and doubled its traditional channel sales, two of our most important KPIs

Exits and distributions
We had success translating momentum into exits and generated distributions from several of our businesses during the year, which in total should return limited partners a substantial amount of capital. In most cases, comparable valuations for our businesses rose considerably, which will drive further uplifts in valuation. While we generally do not underwrite based on multiple arbitrage, we believe it presents us with tremendous optionality for additional upside.

Capital committed to new investments
We committed more than $100 million to new investments during the year. We were most aggressive in buying snack food companies, with the acquisition of Yao TaiTai, Orchard Farmer, and LifeFun. We also closed our investment in Honworld.

While this represents a growing amount of investment for us, it is still small compared to the size of the opportunity we are addressing. Far too small in fact. In critiquing our own performance, we believe that we have left too many opportunities sitting on the table, where we could have leveraged our platforms and driven growth at reasonable valuations. In babywear, for example, there were several large acquisitions we should have made, where investment and execution risk could have been mitigated by leveraging our market leadership. We missed similar opportunities in snack foods. We will work to better present these investments to our investing partners in the future, and ensure that we do not miss chances like these again.

Pipeline and investment focus
You will hear more from us about baby- and kids-related businesses, snack foods and condiments. Our team has strong conviction that our foothold in these sectors is an enormous opportunity to put more capital to work and deliver investment gains. We have about a half-dozen new platform concepts under serious consideration in areas like early education. We believe that we can leverage the large base of VIP customers we have built up through our Little Star Brands platform and provide Chinese families with more professionally run, higher quality educational services to compliment the clothing and supplies that our brands provide. We look forward to discussing similar ideas in travel, cosmetics, and other sectors with you soon.

Risk factors
We begin the year with more of the same concerns over a potential credit bubble, the weakening RMB, and the increasing the risk of some form of trade war. Domestic politics will also be a factor as the quinquennial process of making leadership appointments, including Xi Jinping’s likely successor, will occur.

Goldman recently postulated that a hard landing is likely over the coming three years. Morgan Stanley takes a different and very bullish view on China, believing that a shock will be avoided and a focus on domestic consumption and services will lead to high-income status by 2027. So, Goldman fears a crisis, Morgan Stanley urges focus on the long term positives, and, at Davos last year, George Soros said he was no longer expecting a hard landing, but already “observing it”! From what we see in our businesses, we believe that a series of soft landings occurred in 2008-09, 2012-13, and 2016. Together, these may be the speedbumps that slow growth, lower valuations, accelerate restructuring, and prevent the economy going off the rails. For now, we concur with Morgan Stanley (“[they are] able to navigate [it]”).

As for our investment strategy, we believe that for so long as China remains underdeveloped, with a high savings rate, reasonable asset prices, and a growing middle class of aspirational consumers, the opportunity to buy good consumer-focused businesses with the potential for growth at reasonable prices is compelling. We remain convinced that putting capital to work and mitigating risk through our operational efforts, disciplined focus, and ability to leverage control is a wiser course of action versus remaining underinvested.

Potential surprises
Readers of our year-end letter (and of Nostradamus’ works) want predictions. Below is a recap of how our forecasts from last year fared, and the trends we believe remain in place based on the feedback we receive from our businesses, management teams and dealmakers:

Last year we forecasted that the impact of one-child reform would kick in. And it has. CLSA recently reported that China’s birth rate recovered to 12.95% in 2016, the highest since 2001. Expect the birth rate recovery to continue near term with 18-20 million new-borns in 2017-2020 – a “mini baby boom” that will drive consumption. We also predicted liberalization of the Hukou System would fuel further urbanization and internal migration, which was premature but remains low-hanging fruit to drive future consumption, and we believe it will occur soon.

We believed that the upper middle class would surprise and deliver non-linear growth rates of premium consumption in areas such as healthy food, overseas travel, education, healthcare and higher quality apparel. This trend continues. Each of China’s online shoppers will spend US $473 on foreign goods this year, up from $446 in 2015. Luxury brands like LVMH, are reporting “better momentum after a tough 2015” as are Re?my Cointreau and Kweichow Moutai. “Re-shoring” of luxury is accelerating as China cuts duties on luxury goods imported through official channels, and cracks down on “daigou” (overseas personal shoppers unofficially bringing back grey-market goods). This dovetails with our channel checks that show better sales domestically, but weakness in places that cater to daigou, like Hong Kong.

We were correct in foreseeing that the weaker RMB and lower equity valuations would fuel M&A. The demand to acquire good companies we control is positively impacting our portfolio, although the weaker currency has led to outflows for China-focused fund managers, and macroeconomic concerns for investors globally. We expect the currency will continue to experience a managed decline, and that it is the volatility, not the absolute level, of the RMB that most concerns policy makers. The market will grudgingly conclude that China has the growth, reserves, policy tools and force of will to bring the RMB in line with fundamentals while avoiding overshooting to the downside.

We also called the narrowing of the valuation gap between domestically listed A-Shares and Hong Kong-listed H-Shares, especially in the consumer sector, although our belief that this would be fueled by a rebound in the valuations of H-Share consumer stocks, which traded sideways, was a bit off. For the coming year, we anticipate that the stock-connect, which provides domestic Chinese investors access to reasonably-valued Hong Kong listed companies and, indirectly, foreign currency exposure, will become too tempting to resist and offer reasonably priced yield, versus the very expensive growth on offer elsewhere.

We overstated the risk that businesses and startups in China “losing more to sell more” would rattle investor confidence. Enough unicorns were minted to prove us wrong. Going into the New Year, we still see an overabundance of capital searching for a home, especially in early-stage venture-land. Growth is overvalued, but expect nonsensical start-up valuations and the general dodginess in industries like peer-to-peer lending to persist for a while longer. Domestic equity valuations will also remain high. While the local markets are imperfect, the trend toward higher quality listings, better regulations, greater institutional participation and more overseas involvement combined with China’s extremely high domestic savings rate will keep valuations robust.

Priorities
Finally, we would like to recap our priorities for 2017:

First, we will continue making distributions and complete further closings for the exits we commenced in 2016. We believe we can do this while ensuring that these companies continue to grow.

Second, we aim to sell down our last two remaining investments in LCP-II, our vintage 2008 fund. To this end, we are off to a good start in 2017.

Third, we will optimize our remaining investments in LCP-III to achieve higher valuations, generate distributions and achieve industry-leading returns.

Fourth, we are taking advantage of the platforms we currently own to invest more capital, with a target of exceeding the $100 million we committed last year into further snack foods, sauces and baby/kids-related businesses and one new platform.

Fifth, we continue to build Lunar’s franchise and reputation.

Lunar | 12月 31, 2016

The crystal ball: Predictions for 2017

From LPs looking for realizations from GPs as well as paper gains, to the factors contributing to more buyout opportunities in China, industry participants give their perspectives on the year to come:
BRIAN LIM, PARTNER AT PANTHEON, ON THE LP PERSPECTIVE:
Sentiment has been more subdued on Asia. You will see some fundraising noise that comes through from the timing of some large funds coming to the market, so maybe the figure to focus on is the average over two or three years. But even allowing for that, fundraising is probably down.
There is also a theme of consolidation of GP relationships by many LPs. This has benefited some of the larger funds that are able to raise more money, but some smaller managers are feeling the negative impact of that consolidation. You will see continue to see some oversubscribed funds in the mid-market space, but by and large, the days when you would be able to command a strong fundraise as a new face on the block or as a re-up without much in terms of realizations are past. LPs are more demanding in what they are looking for. Your DPI [distributions to paid-in] matters; your ability to justify your fund size over and above what you raised last time matters.
Regarding China specifically, there are some issues at the political and economic level, but there remains a fair amount of optimism. As long as managers are able to command capital this is quite a good investing environment – there is less competition and more time to conduct due diligence.
I also see some optimism in India, despite the recent demonetization efforts. Fewer firms are able to raise capital, particularly if you strip out VC, but pockets of capital have been raised locally. There is increased realism as to what it is practical to expect of foreign institutional investors, so if managers can rely on local investors to get going that is a sensible strategy.
Australia and Korea will hopefully both continue to be steady, and Japan continues to defy expectations and perform well despite a difficult backdrop in terms of macroeconomics and demographics. This could well be Japan's year in terms of private equity fundraising, because a number of firms are coming to market at the same time.
RICHARD FOLSOM, CO-FOUNDER OF ADVANTAGE PARTNERS, ON JAPAN:
The pace of deployment has continued on an upward trend, especially in the small to mid-market deal space, and we see signs of that continuing to be robust going into 2017. The pipeline will continue to be driven largely by founder-owner succession deals and some corporate spin-offs.
One thing we see going forward is that succession deals will be coming not only from ageing founder-owners but also those from in their late-30s to mid-40s as they realize the merits of working with private equity firms based on word of mouth and what they're seeing in the market. That's a change in perception that has accelerated over the last year or so and will be driving deals in the future.
Corporate divestments are a bit more cyclical in nature and I think we're at a point in the cycle now where Japanese companies are feeling more pressure to divest and focus on shareholder value. Additive to that, improvements in corporate governance initiated over the past year that make it easier for private equity to participate in larger deals are beginning to take effect with these companies.
We are seeing appetite and opportunity to sell to Japanese strategics in 2017 and foreign companies will begin to take on a role as buyers as well. There are different angles to achieve double-digit growth in Japan, so private equity will focus more on creating value with differentiated products, bolt-on acquisitions and helping companies go overseas.
WONPYO CHOI, PARTNER AT BAIN & COMPANY, ON KOREA:
From next year, it will be a much more challenging environment for private equity in Korea, even for deals over $1 billion, because the spectrum of competition is going global and even the smaller funds will be able to source additional money from LPs through co-investment. LPs, who have witnessed a number of high-return mid- to large-cap deals in Korea, are pushing the global funds to build up their teams in the country and secure more deals.
For the next 3-6 months, the current political instability may have a negative impact on private equity markets because it's not just about politics – it relates to concerns that Korean conglomerates may be accused [of improper conduct], which could delay the important decisions such as portfolio adjustment or M&As.
However, I still think deal flow will be strong for the next 18-24 months because there will be activity in the distress market. There will also be a lot of secondary deals because many PE portfolio companies are mature.
In addition, there are still a number of mid-cap companies that need support for globalization on top of growth capital. PE funds will continue to have a preference for consumer and retail despite the potential macro headwinds, but there are some contrarian views that they could actually be more active in industrial sectors due to cheaper prices. More investors could turn companies in those sectors around with creative deal structures, drive consolidations, or shoot for an industry cycle play.
The issue will be exits because domestic strategic investors are quite selective regarding local deals and pursue cross-border opportunities more actively. We have also never seen any IPOs for majority-owned PE portfolio companies and we've had some political impasses between China and Korea making it hard for Chinese strategics to do deals in Korea. Unless we resolve the political issues with China and the stock exchange allows companies majority owned by PE to go public, it is likely exit activity will face challenges in 2017.
DAVID PIERCE, HEAD OF ASIA AT HQ CAPITAL, ON EVOLVING LP ATTITUDES:
The thing that has struck me most in the last year or two has been the mood swing of many international investors. Those of us within the region continue to believe that Asia represents a very interesting place to invest private equity capital, if done intelligently, but globally the mood seems to have swung broadly against the region as an investment destination. The perhaps excessive enthusiasm of a few years ago has gone away and been replaced by excessive pessimism.
Of course, this can actually create some interesting opportunities, because reduced capital inflows can also reduced competition for deals, potentially making entry valuations more attractive. But the pessimism makes it very challenging for GPs to raise money, especially those still trying to prove themselves.
For the last year or so now, managers seeing fundraising success are those that have proven an ability to get money back to their investors. An attractive TVPI [total value to paid in] alone is not sufficient. Investors want to see distributions, an area in which Asian funds have lagged peers in Europe and North America. So we've seen some of the bigger Asian GPs do really well with fundraising, because they tended to invest more in the buyout space where they can control the timing of exits, or in larger deals where they could get listings on exchanges or do some other form of recapitalization and get money back.
On the other hand, for many GPs managing smaller funds, while the portfolios may look good, fundraising has been very challenging because of the inability to show that they can actually realize returns. I think that's likely to continue to be the case in 2017.
Another development worth noting is the growth of the secondary market in Asia. Many of the funds that were raised in the mid to late 2000s are coming to the end of their lives, and they need to find solutions to their exit problems. So the secondary market is increasingly a way to get liquidity for investors or, in some cases, give new life to a GP by recapitalizing a fund or using other techniques to permit pursuit of a promising investment course.
CAMERON BLANKS, MANAGING DIRECTOR AT PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS, ON AUSTRALIA:
The Australian private equity market is very stable with a consistent set of competitors, and the economy is heading into its 27th year of continual growth. We therefore don't really see a lot of change happening over the next 12-24 months in terms of dynamics or conditions.
There's a A$2.1 trillion ($1.57 trillion) pool of capital in the Australian superannuation space that continues to grow at a faster pace than the economy, so there's no doubt that investors at a macro level will be seeking to invest that. But I don't think it's going to lead to an oversupply of capital in the local market because a lot of it will be invested offshore. The superannuation funds also invest lower percentages of their funds into PE compared to global benchmarks, and I don't see that changing in the near term either.
One theme that is coming out in Australia, however, is exports of services, which has now overtaken exports of iron ore. We expect that trend to continue, especially in the education sector, which is set to grow off Asian demand. Australia is now said to be exporting more education services than the UK or Canada. New Zealand will have a similar services dynamic with probably more of a focus on food businesses and agriculture.
There has also been a good appetite in the Australian market for services-related businesses to go public. We've seen a strong IPO pipeline since late 2013, but it has tightened up recently so it will be interesting to see how that goes in the first quarter next year. That will depend on what happens in the US and economies around the world in terms of investor appetite.
KARTHIK REDDY, MANAGING PARTNER AT BLUME VENTURES, ON INDIA VC:
One trendline is about definitely watching the leading start-ups – the Flipkarts and Olas of the world. In 2014, 2015, and to some extent in 2016, they were also the forerunners for M&A and aggregation and consolidation in this space, and if they're not strong aggregators, then what happens is M&A dies down a bit. And so it's not only the companies themselves to watch out for, but also the lead indicators on M&A activity and late stage investors coming into India. A lot of people have money invested into those companies that they cannot afford to lose. It may swing momentum away at late stage if that happens.
The contrarian trend to that is there's a lot of early stage capital with resident managers in India, whether that's Accel Partners, Nexus Venture Partners or even early-stage funds and angels, but it's far more tentative when it comes to what gets backed. The good news is that models that are more robust, that have more traction, are getting recognized and funded. India-centric or unique-to-India models got a bit of a rough ride from investors in my view, but that is changing dramatically in favor of those companies. Some sectors that we like or we've bet on already are going to get a huge uptick in the next 12 months: healthcare, financial services, education, small business technology, small business enablers, B2B enterprise and software-as-a-service (SAAS).
A lot has yet to be seen in terms of what impact demonetization has on the overall economy. I don't think it's all positive. It's going to hit discretionary spending, and it's going to slow down the economy for the first six months of the year. The full impact will roll out early in the first half of next year. And compounded with that is all the policy uncertainty. I think the government does realize that they have made mistakes in the short term, and to fix that they'll have to throw a whole lot at one layer or the other. So whether it's to facilitate trade, or to boost consumer spending, some of that is going to happen.
If start-ups are able to survive through the next year, my belief is that the end behavior, whether that's in six months or five years, should benefit new age start-ups, because a lot of the frictionless transactional activity, whether it's goods or services, is bound to move online. And anything that piggybacks the mobile internet economy is likely to benefit, if they've executed it well. So apart from payment start-ups and financial services, once you've taken a lot of cash and pushed it through the formal banking system, consumers become savvy enough to operate their cash flows digitally, and the digital service offering suddenly becomes far more viable.
DMITRY LEVIT, FOUNDER & GENERAL PARTNER AT DMP, ON SOUTHEAST ASIA VC:
Some business environment factors in Southeast Asia, such as internet connectivity, are quick to change, while others take longer. One important missing element of a healthy digital ecosystem is a stock exchange capable of providing liquidity for technology companies. Before this becomes a reality, an entire generation of equity analysts, traders and investors will have to be educated. Other important factors such as a culture of risk-taking, access to a deep pool of technical talent and availability of experienced mentors are noticeably changing, but likely have further to go.
In terms of investment sectors, although VC enthusiasm for Southeast Asia's e-commerce market – Indonesia's in particular – has subsided somewhat following an intense period of interest, an interesting group of businesses has emerged in its wake. These are the back-end infrastructure systems necessary to support e-commerce operations, such as last-mile logistics, advertising and affiliate technologies, and digital payments.
Certain industries succumb to the hype generated by the global tech ecosystem. In my opinion, financial technology is one area where the current buzz exceeds substance. While there is much talk of disrupting banks and insurers, I find that start-ups whose initial role is to support, rather than replace, financial institutions' processes are more successful in establishing a beachhead from which to advance. Separate from the buzzy fintech space is digital payments, which has been developing nicely in the past couple of years, and where I think we will see some consolidation.
Overseas investors, who deploy the majority of capital into Southeast Asia's tech companies, will continue to have a major influence over events in 2017. For example, we are seeing a resurgence of interest from mainland Chinese investors in certain markets – Indonesia and Singapore feature most prominently, but increasingly also Thailand and Vietnam. This may be why, after almost a decade out in the cold, the amount of buzz around Vietnam's tech ecosystem has risen again.
MARCIA ELLIS, PARTNER AT MORRISON & FOERSTER, ON CHINA:
Over the last year, PE funds that I represent have become very interested in working with Chinese corporates to do outbound investments. And with the recent curb on outbound investment (not formally announced but widely reported), there is certainly doubt at least for the first half of 2017 as to what is going to happen with that flow of investment money offshore.
Some of the funds that I represent are actually seeing this as a potential opportunity for them: Because they have offshore cash available, they can provide a bridge for Chinese companies that are trying to do investments but can't get their cash out. If you figure that eventually the tap is going to be opened again and cash will be able to leave China, then if you are an offshore fund you can make money off of financing those offshore investments in the interim. Many of my fund clients are also focusing on the China NPL [non-performing loan] market, acquiring portfolios of loans and investing in companies that work with Chinese NPLs.
I think that a lot of people are finding other sorts of exits besides IPOs. There are always secondary sales to other funds. There are also a lot of people looking to consolidate businesses in certain sectors like education and healthcare, and often you can just sell your asset to somebody else who is consolidating. We've assisted a number of PE sellers in sales to strategics. In the past, maybe people would have held out and tried to do an IPO, but now they're saying, ‘Let's go ahead and sell this to a strategic.” Often the multiples are actually quite high. People are rethinking IPOs, which are really expensive to complete, assuming you are able to complete them. Indeed, when you look at the returns and factor in the cost and the time it takes to do an IPO – plus the time it will take the fund to sell its shares post IPO – sometimes an IPO is just not the optimal exit.
On the fundraising side, we still see LPs very willing to commit to China-focused funds. I think you're going to have a period with people pausing to sort out between the types of China-focused funds they will invest in and the types of funds they won't. The Chinese economy is slowing, so you can't just invest in a fund if its only strategy is to bet on growth. You need confidence that the people at the fund have real ideas and can figure out an investment strategy that really works.
DEREK SULGER, PARTNER AT LUNAR CAPITAL, ON CHINA BUYOUT STRATEGIES:
Domestic consumption will continue to steadily rise – it started out weak in 2016 but ended the year very strong. You'll see that reflected in funds like ours that focus on what people eat, drink and wear. When I think of consumer I think of the mass market premium brands – it's the products and services that people are buying. I really think we will see the most success in that area, which means that strategies oriented around the consumer, mass market, and tangible qualities will continue to see good growth.
We feel very strongly that what we're doing will remain a sweet spot in terms of attractive entry valuations, less competition, and most importantly, the greatest opportunity to add value. You're still going to see enormous opportunity, especially in areas like consumer, to buy established businesses with a strong pedigree and a strong track record, and bring them into the modern age. If you're a younger entrepreneur, and you're at an early stage of running and building your business, you may not see much value-add from private equity. You also may not want to sell your business, and if you need to raise money, you might solicit PE investors but probably as little as possible. So these opportunities are difficult for growth capital to invest in, and those founders are probably not likely to do something even with a buyout firm.
But if you look from a big-picture perspective, there are approximately 12 million mid-size companies in China. And the average age of the established mid-market companies is older, as they were typically started in the 1980s and 1990s, and are now approaching 20 or 30 years of operational and brand history. A lot of those businesses are run by people who are thinking about what's next for their company, beyond their own lifespan, and certainly beyond their tenure as CEO and founder. To the extent there will be competition, it's going to come from domestic Chinese companies rather than from other private equity firms, but they'll focus a little more on the larger and slightly more mature end of the sector.
Increased competition is narrowing the upside in minority growth transactions. This is not necessarily driven by other private equity firms, because there hasn't been that much capital raised, but from from increasingly-developed, deeper, more robust capital markets that are better positioned now to provide meaningful financing. A well-run company looking to raise money, can now get it at very reasonable prices. You don't have to give an arm and a leg to a growth capital fund like you had to five or ten years ago. That investment approach will be challenged, and I don't see the trend reversing any time soon.
 

Lunar | 12月 13, 2016

破解中小企业投融资难题

2016年8月18-19日,2016股权交易商大会在黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市成功举办。云月投资合伙人、中国/北京股权投资基金协会执行副会长宋斌应邀出席,并与全国政协委员、中央财经大学证券期货研究所所长贺强先生,分别以《企业投融资难题破解》和《中国多层次资本市场发展》为主题发表演讲。

宋斌表示,振兴东北老工业基地,应以绿色发展为核心布局产业,以政府国资为杠杆引导民企,放手支持产融结合。中观层面的区域经济发展,应善于以城市为载体聚焦资源,通过市场机制筛选优势产业,重点培育差异化的领先企业,让产业和企业插上资本市场的翅膀,带动整个产业链的发展,避免由于堆钱式的同质竞争,造成一拥而上一哄而散。宋斌指出,健康通畅的企业融资是产业发展的基础,当前股权投资行业面临变局,鱼龙混杂信用透支严重,搭车造富神话已经破灭,企业期盼产业金融联动,因此需要按照中央和国务院要求,遵循法制化、市场化、专业化三项原则,放手支持股权投资行业做优做强。宋斌强调,从云月投资成功经验中可以得到的重要启示,作为成熟专业的投资机构,长期专注专攻细分领域,运用独特的专业知识、专业实力和深入运营能力,融汇资智资源提升业绩,同心实力有效支持企业发展,可以有效地为社会、产业和投资者创造真实价值。宋斌呼吁,国资机构作为LP出资,投入市场需要专业可靠的PE机构,有助于通过资本杠杆提振民间信心,加大向民企投资激发市场活力。同时国家实行风险补偿鼓励投资的基金减税政策,有利于形成藏富于民的市场红利,实现国资民资收益持续共赢格局。

中央统战部原副部长、全国工商联原党组书记胡德平,中国普惠金融联席会会长、国家开发银行原副行长刘克崮,国家粮食局原局长、中国市场学会理事长高铁生,中国证监会上市公司协会党委书记、副会长姚峰,国家发改委宏观经济研究院原院长助理、中国投资协会股权和创业投资委员会常务副会长沈志群,科技部资源配置与管理司副巡视员邓天佐、国务院国资委企业改革局原副局长、中国企业改革研究会副会长周放生,黑龙江省人大常委会副主任陈述涛,政协副主席洪袁舒,政府副秘书长赵万山,金融办主任郎国明,工信委副主任方安儒,齐齐哈尔市委书记孙珅,市长李玉刚,政协主席张贵海,常务副市长王志鹏,政府秘书长金伟等专家领导,以及近五百名政府部门、企业界、金融界嘉宾和专业人士出席大会。

 

云月投资合伙人宋斌在2016股权交易商大会上的讲话

感谢黑龙江省和齐齐哈尔市领导的热情邀请,也感谢沈会长和秘书长的周到安排,很高兴来到风光美丽的鹤城。各位嘉宾不远千里而来,共同探讨如何破解企业融资难的问题。大家都知道,专业尽责的股权投资机构,不仅是企业家的好朋友好伙伴,也是政府发展经济的好参谋好助手,也有责任满足大家带着问题来带着答案回的愿望。我们今天的股权投资行业与交易市场,面临的是什么新情况、新问题、新机遇呢?这要从不同的历史角度和现实立场来看。

首先站在行业发展的角度看。我为之打义工的中国股权投资基金协会,是最早设立的服务于PE投资机构的行业组织之一,与北京市政府批准成立的北京股权投资基金协会,两块牌子一套人马,会员遍布全国,在中国股权投资行业兴起过程中,起到很大的、重要的、难得的启蒙、宣传和引导作用。最近我到各地走了一圈,见到许多行业的老人,在上海还与吴晓灵行长,回忆邵秉仁会长在她的帮助下,筹备成立协会的往事,大家都是记忆犹新。站在协会组织看行业发展,中国的股权投资行业,这些年来由无到有,由小到大,由少到多,由新到乱。全民PE,泥沙俱下。野蛮成长,鱼龙混杂。我们协会,包括创投委,成立若干年,加起来会员也不过千八百。然而近两年一下子就冒出上万个号称是做PE的机构,假冒伪劣的出现,不仅扰乱行业的发展,更是透支、破坏了市场的信任,因此如何拨乱反正是摆在行业面前的大问题。

站在我所服务的云月投资Lunar Capital角度看,也是站在股权投资机构个体实践的立场看,中国的股权投资行业,随着中国经济形势与环境进入新常态,也确实到了需要脱胎换骨的时候。云月投资是一家国内外知名的并购基金,长期专注于大消费行业的控股投资,业内所讲的“云月模式”,就是云月的专注细分领域投资业绩与深入运营成功经验的总结。我们在与企业家和投资者合作与沟通过程中,发现他们的需求、追求与要求,与前些年发生了很大的变化。企业家盼望来的是拉车的投资人,拒绝搭便车的投机者。投资者不再相信神话,逐步真正理解和接受风险与收益匹配的投资逻辑。如何恢复和展示整个行业的诚实、可靠、专业、价值创造的特质,正是有责任有担当的PE机构当务之急。

由于长期在综合经济管理部门和企业、金融机构工作,对地方政府和国有企业运作也久为关心了解。站在政府的参谋助手这个角度看,如何在经济下行压力加大,预算制度改革深化,市场机制不够充分的情况下,科学理智地用好金融工具和手段,是一个需要系统思考和运作的事情。所担心的是地区间堆钱式的同质化竞争,一拥而上,一哄而散,表面文章,不见实效,一锤子买卖,最终难以为继。虽然上面讲的是三个问题,但是相互关联的,实际上是一个问题的不同方面。

我们今天在省域、市域,在一个行政区域讨论金融问题,需要更加务实有针对性的讨论,需要从中观来展开,找到具有可行性的解决之道。站在区域经济发展角度,认识两个三角关系很有必要:第一个三角是产业、市场与资源,核心是产业。发展区域优势产业需要立足本地区特点,与特定对应的市场结合,与特色明显的资源结合。第二个三角是企业、城市和政府,企业是主体,城市是载体,政府是托底,核心是培育行业领先的企业。两个三角放在一起,它们相互的关系,归纳起来一句话:政府遵循市场化原则,以城市为载体,组织调动综合资源,培育相对优势产业的领先企业群。这句话代表的是战略导向和选择。在这句话上要加上一个杠杆,就是支持产业和企业发展的金融,也就是大家耳熟能详的产融结合,创新的、复合的、系统化的产融结合。

这里所讲的金融杠杆,涉及到市场、工具和机构三个方面:第一是需要三个市场,一是债券市场,二是股票市场,三是权益市场。第二是对应三个工具,一是贷款,包括金融租赁等类似信贷;二是公募,主要是公开发行的股票和公司债、企业债;三是私募。私募除股权、产权外,还可包括知识产权、土地流转权等。第三是配套三种机构,一是商业银行,二是投资银行,三是PE/VC。区别在于,前二者是金融服务,后者是金融投资。

在当今形势下,最大程度发挥金融投资的作用更为重要,这是因为在实践中具有试金石一般的独特作用。举个例子,各级政府所面对的长期无解的难题,就是中小企业及小微企业,融资难融资贵。实际上这个难与贵是正常状况,如果处于弱势地位的中小企业,融资不难不贵了,整个金融的价值机制也就扭曲了。企业融资难,单纯靠行政命令金融投资,牛不喝水硬按头,不是好办法,也做不到。这是因为企业有生有死是常态,没有人能够解决所有中小企业的生存问题。而职工的生活问题,是政府的责任,不是资本的责任,更不是金融机构的责任。政府的目标是通过支持更多好的中小企业发展,创造更多的就业与税收。金融的功能就是支持有潜力的好的优质中小企业,如此资本与企业双赢,可以同甘。而对于经营不善、市场不认可、金融不支持的企业,政府负责托底保人,不必共苦。这里的关键在于,不论是金融,还是政府,他的功能都应是造血机制,而不是向企业输血。

在产融结合过程中,PE机构应该是一支象特种兵似的特殊力量,我们称之为金融产业家。他具备识别好的企业的眼力,帮助难的企业的能力,以差异化的优势,独特的资源,开展创意、创新、创造性的工作。樱桃好吃树难栽,不下苦功花不开,PE就应是有独特专业能力的育苗栽树人,是企业欢迎的拉车老黄牛。

讲实干办实事,政府的导向作用非常重要。从政府所能调动的资源看,国资国企是当前一张非常重要的经济牌。单纯走国企引进民资的路子,与中央提出的拉动民间投资方向未必对头。应该是通过打破行业产业的玻璃门、弹簧门、旋转门,打破垄断来解决两种资本的融合问题。政府的目标是激发经济的活力,如何发挥民企的优势和专长,引导和鼓励民间投资,是个大问题。不应只是鼓励民间投资国企,而应更多是国资投入民企,请注意不是国企直接投资民企,而是以基金的形式,包括母子基金,用资金杠杆,遵循市场机制,发挥资本效用,参与优秀民企发展,同时这也就是支持行业发展。最近国务院国资委下属的国新、招商、诚通等央企,正在设立千亿级规模的基金,就是一个好的尝试。这些事情都需要用市场来配置,不论是有形与无形的、有边界与无边界的市场,特别是资本市场,必须要走法制化、市场化、专业化的道路。法制化是基础,市场化是条件,专业化保障。最近国内企业海外并购成为热门话题,实质上不少只是简单的以财易物而已,更多是为了注水充门面,为的是支持股价。企业并购的标准与PE投资的逻辑应该是一样的,就是产业是否领先,国力能否增强,价值能否提升,这是专业化的金标准要求。另一方面,环境条件是否净化,产品质量是否改善,人民生活体验是否提高,投资者收益是否丰厚,这是对大消费时代金融投资的市场化考验。

综上所述,政府支持产融结合,还有两件事可大有作为:一是城市建设与产业发展配套,需求资金量大,既需考虑长远,还须抓住当前。因此地方政府可以走资产证券化的道路,通过交易市场打包引资,对象既包括并购型基金,也包括大型产业集团,但目标是盯住细分产业龙头企业,形成当地优势企业群。二是中央政府减税,藏富于民,藏富于企业,利在千秋,势在必行。全面减税条件还不太具备,但对PE机构和基金收益的减税,一方面是某种风险补偿,鼓励投资与成功,另一方面也是利用两层杠杆,拉动民间投资,推动经济前行,而且证券市场已有先例,中央容易下决心,也容易操作。企业自身则要融资融智融资源,争取得到优秀股权投资机构的专业帮助,改进管理提升业绩,更好地插上资本市场的翅膀腾飞。

 

Lunar | 9月 30, 2016

家庭至上的中国消费者

在致力于将经济重心由出口及制造业转移之际,中国仍然保持着不断提高的可支配收入及较低的失业率,使人们对于消费业的增长前景越来越乐观。中国超过2亿中产阶级正在逐渐开始追求高端的产品,以及以健康、家庭和社交为核心的生活方式。

为改善生活质量而消费

麦肯锡最近的消费者信心调查显示55%的中国人相信他们的收入在未来五年内将得到明显的增长,而美国和英国数据仅32%和30%。同时,中国人的生活压力也由于购房等原因变得越来越大。

由清华大学发起的一项调查证明了中国人正在承受巨大的生活压力 – 88%的受访者认为自己“十分疲惫”,53%对自己的精神和身体健康不满意。另外,60%的白领认为自己的压力大多来自于购房以及还贷。

因此,中产阶级愈发关注身心健康,关注优质的产品和服务,以及营养均衡的饮食。尽管西式快餐过去在中国市场有着非常强劲的增长,今年来却逐渐下滑,因为消费者已经开始意识到“垃圾食品”所带来的危害。同时,传统碳酸饮料也正在遭受来自各种果汁产品的冲击。

营养与保健食品“十二五”发展规划正式出台,标志着政府也已经意识到民众健康意识的觉醒。著名市场调研公司英敏特预计维他命与营养补品市场将于2017年达到53亿美元,超出10年前的两倍。市场趋势促使越来越多的食品企业开始研究如何吸引关注健康的消费群体。在我们的旗下企业中,姚太太和永红都在推出健康概念的新产品以满足消费者的需求。

边购物边享受家庭时光

尽管中国已经超越美国成为世界最大的电商市场,实体店仍然是顾客消费体验不可或缺的一部分。购物休闲体验(retailtainment)成为了中国越来越重要的概念。2/3的消费者认为外出用餐和购物是与家庭共度美好时光的最好方式之一。因此,那些集购物、餐饮和娱乐为一体的购物中心成为了这种趋势的最大受益者。

奖励计划提升顾客忠诚度

越来越多的中国消费者开始只关注少数几个自己熟悉并欣赏的品牌,并体现出对顾客奖励计划的重视。因此,顾客奖励计划成为了解决中国消费者忠诚度问题的重要途径。另一方面,为了得到更高的顾客转化率,这种趋势也会在短期内为企业带来较大的营销成本。在云月的旗下企业中,小星辰品牌集团是最早推出品牌忠诚度计划并建立VIP顾客数据库的企业之一。通过这些措施,我们可以根据顾客的具体情况有针对性地进行产品推广。

总之,我们相信中国消费行业的前景。旗下企业优化运营的潜力、顾客消费习惯的变化以及中国消费者对生活品质越来越高的要求对于我们来说意味着未来几年内巨大的机会。

Lunar | 7月 31, 2016

中国消费行业的新媒体时代

在中国经济向消费转型之际, 国内企业正在将营销费用越来越多地投入到新媒体之中去。中国企业对新媒体的投入占整体营销投入的百分比从2012年的20%增长到2015年的43%, 并将于2016年达到60%。作为数字内容与移动互联网的结合体,新媒体与传统媒体最显著的区别在于它强化了用户之间的交流和分享,而不仅仅是像传统媒体那样单向传播信息。随着人们获取信息、处理信息、运用信息和发布信息的习惯迅速改变,中国消费品企业也很快相应地改变了营销战略,致力于更有效地与目标客户互动。最近的一项调研显示,中国消费者对新媒体的关注度,由2012年的不到30%,上升为2015年的72%,并将很快突破80%。

 

新媒体的实时反馈

以往在传统媒体上的投放广告后,通常需要数周乃至数月时间去获取数据并分析方案的成功与否。如今在新媒体时代,企业能够通过各种跟踪工具以及第三方服务实时获取浏览量、点赞数、转发数等重要指标,从而不断通过少量多次的投入改进自己的营销方案。同时,实时反馈可以帮助企业及时止损,提早舍弃那些并不能带来高回报的营销方案。 中国著名的新晋白酒品牌“我是江小白”,在2015年一年内执行了超过1000个与产品或品牌有关的改进,其销售在过去的五年中达成了200%的年均复合增长率。

 

新媒体的规模效应

古斯塔夫•勒庞在其著作《乌合之众:大众心理研究》中提到,个人融入群体一段时间后,他的个性便会被群体的思想所代替。在新媒体时代,许多全国性的热点话题都源自个人微不足道的想法或观点,而关注度经常会短时间内呈几何级数攀升。因此,许多中国的消费品企业正在竭尽全力反复尝试各种方案,设法找到能够引发目标市场共鸣的话题。

 

品牌忠诚度的决定因素正在改变

新媒体的核心在于分享和评论,因此口碑效应在这个新媒体的时代比任何时候都要更加重要。消费品企业努力改善产品质量的同时,也在积极寻求网络名人作为自己的品牌代言。在云月的旗下企业中,I Pinco Pallino和小星辰品牌集团充分地利了名人效应,在社交媒体平台获得了极高的关注度。

 

从云月过去在移动通讯平台取得的成功经验来看,中国消费者往往会比西方消费者更快地接受全新科技。这为我们今后的运营战略带来了诸多启示。我们小星辰平台在新媒体和电子商务方面的成功经验为永红的电子商务战略奠定了基础,并且会继续推动我们将创新的营销战略运用今后新的平台中去。(作者:余懿群)

Lunar | 5月 30, 2016

中国富二代不愿接班,家族企业出售私募股权

姚卫忠花了半辈子的时间经营他在杭州的家族休闲食品企业,如今已经精力不济。由于22岁的儿子对打理家族生意没有多大兴趣,姚卫忠需要新的资金和专业知识来保持公司的发展。

因此,现年48岁的姚卫忠选择了越来越多的中国企业家走过的一条路:他把自己在姚太太公司的控股权出售给了一家私募股权投资公司。

他在去年12月把这些股份卖给了总部位于上海的云月投资公司(Lunar Capital Ltd.)。“公司遇到了瓶颈,”姚卫忠上周接受电话采访时说,“我到了这个年纪已经没有足够的精力,我的孩子不愿意接手生意。我也不能强迫他喜欢。”

从金融中心上海到煤炭资源丰富的山西省,面临接班问题和经济放缓双重挑战的中国企业家越来越愿意把公司的多数股权转让给收购公司。这表明市场发生了根本性的转变,从1994年中国对私募股权投资公司开放以来,为了能分享中国经济高速增长的成果,凯雷投资集团(Carlyle Group LP)和KKR集团(KKR & Co.)等公司有时不得不放弃坚持持有所投资公司控股权的条件。

企业重组

通过买下企业控股权,收购公司可以运用他们在发达国家市场沿袭了几十年的模式:收购价值低估的公司,通过削减成本、更换管理层和调整企业战略,扭转经营状况,而不会受到根基深厚的创始人的阻挠。

“毫无争议的是,这种收购控股权的做法在中国效果更好,回报率更高,”云月投资公司合伙人苏丹瑞(Derek Sulger)说。他表示现在依然很难找到大宗交易,尤其是在科技和教育等热门领域,所以私募股权投资公司转而把注意力放在了消费和零售行业小公司的交易上。

根据《亚洲创业投资期刊》(Asian Venture Capital Journal)的统计,涉及控股权变更的交易占去年中国私募股权交易总价值的34%,比2014年高出一倍以上。这家私募股权研究机构估计,不包括所谓的套利交易(通常涉及公司退市然后转到估值较高的市场上市),“控股权”交易金额从2014年的49亿美元增长到去年的68亿美元,创下历史记录。尽管如此,这类交易只占到中国私募股权交易总价值的13%。

无人接班

苏丹瑞说,他正在与至少10家中国企业进行收购谈判,这些公司的创始人或经理都打算退休或者出售控股权。其中有一家位于山西的休闲食品生产商,公司创始人的儿子去了加拿大读大学,在香港的一家投资银行工作过,现在就职于香港最大的会计师事务所之一。

“一个孩子从少年时期就离开中国,在温哥华地区的里士满长大,就读于多伦多大学,然后回国经营山西农村地区的家族企业,你怎么能指望这样一个孩子高高兴兴地接班?”苏丹瑞说,“这些企业创始人都是自尊心很强的人,他们希望看到自己的企业继续蓬勃发展,即使他们的子女不愿意接手。”

苏丹瑞说,“他们真正需要的是接班问题的解决方案,他们知道自己将面临这个问题。”

“夕阳产业”

中信资本控股有限公司(Citic Capital Holdings Ltd.)驻香港的合伙人信跃升(Eric Xin)说,他的公司正在与一家有20年历史的纺织企业谈判,这家染织企业主要向中东地区出口产品。由于该公司面临近年来销售额下降、劳动力成本上升和人民币升值的多重压力,现年46岁的老板想全部售出股权,搬到英国生活,打算让他的一个儿子在英国受教育。

“这是一家处于污染行业的工业企业,”信跃升说,“子女不希望从事这些夕阳产业,他们想当银行家和金融家。”

在许多情况下,促使中国企业家出售股权的纯粹是经济因素。2014年,中信资本收购了床垫制造商金可儿上海床具有限公司(King Koil Shanghai Sleep System Co.)的控股权。信跃升透露,中信资本在2013年末首次结识这家公司时,最大的股东并不想直接出售股份。半年后,由于该公司酒店业务的销售业绩每况愈下,库存越积越多,利润率降低,老板终于改变了主意。

云月投资的苏丹瑞说,他在寻找基本面稳健、可以通过专业化管理来解决经营难题的企业。苏丹瑞表示,以中国休闲食品企业为例,净利润率通常在4%到6%之间,只有海外竞争对手利润率的一半左右。

价格降低

中国对收购公司开放的最初几年,在能够获得控股权的少数情况下,这些公司不得不支付更高的价格。根据彭博汇编的数据显示,随着越来越多的公司进入收购名单,涉及所有权变更交易的企业价值中位数已经下降到过去12个月利润的7.2倍,远远低于2014年的11.6倍和2013年的17倍以上。

苏丹瑞说,企业老板也越来越愿意承认,他们需要私募股权公司的帮助来度过经济低迷时期,在市场营销、品牌推广和产品研发等领域掌握新的技能。

贝恩咨询公司(Bain & Co.)大中华区私募股权基金业务联席主席韩微文说,许多小企业老板从来没有应对过削减成本或进行彻底重组的困境,“这关系到降低成本、运营效率、转变业务模式和改变自身。他们从来没有做过这种事。”

反过来说,与经常发挥更积极主动的作用相比,许多收购公司也没有培养接管和重组中国企业所需的技能。韩微文说,“他们还要培养自身的能力,真正了解一家中等规模、创始人做主的私营企业如何运作。”

精神追求

姚卫忠在杭州接受采访时称,出售姚太太公司控股权(交易金额不详)的决定,让他可以专注于自己擅长的领域,比如在哪里采购产品中使用的坚果、果脯和添加剂。苏丹瑞表示,在云月投资给这家公司带来的诸多变化中,电子商务平台可能在未来创造高达20%的销售额。

对有些中国企业家来说,出售股权的主要动机是他们自己想追求更平静的生活。苏丹瑞提到,他正在谈判的两家公司老板都想退休,注重佛教等精神追求。

“由于中国经济增长现在有所放缓,你要用更睿智的方式经营企业。你必须更注重成本和电子商务等方面,”他说,“中国也面对着很多生活方式的问题。很多企业创始人想到温哥华生活和工作,很多人想投身于其他领域,比如研究佛学,还有很多人只想退休。” 撰文/Cathy Kit Ching Chan 翻译/孟洁冰 编辑/张晗

http://mobile.bbwc.cn/article/10065254/1/cat_20?articleToken=ptnu2o

Lunar | 4月 18, 2016

中国经济待发蓄势 PE投资消费优先

今年中国“两会”后,没有像往年一样,看到一阵追逐经济热点的浪潮。在各种各样的官方媒体上,更多是充满信心但语焉不详的文章,在大大小小的民间“智库”口中,则更多停留在对困难与问题的评论上,都很少见到系统性的分析,以及全面可行的解决方案。这些现象反映了学术界对实务问题的陌生,产业界对宏观决策的恍惚,政府官员对微观运营的隔阂。在“十三五”规划大格局下,大家似乎一时都迷失了具体方向或路径。然而这正是中国当前经济复杂情况的真实写照,也正是未来经济转型亟待突破的需求所在,可称是中位盘整,蓄势待发。

如何看待未来的经济走势,失落还是希望,地狱还是天堂,唱衰喝多,众说纷纭,没有统一的答案。但值得认识和重视的积极迹象,不同于曾经全力解决生活基本必需品匮乏的短缺经济时代,也不同于过去全速弥补生产资料必需品缺口的数量经济时代,今天的中国正在努力走入长远与当前接续、生活与生产兼顾、企业与市场同步、资本与产业融合、供给与需求匹配、成本与收益相称、资源与效能平衡、人口与环境和谐为特征的质量经济时代。

冷静客观回顾历史,无人可以否认在中国,政府特别是中央政府长期以来,一直是经济增长的最大推手。所主导的基本建设投资,仍是拉动经济的最大工具,直到今日依然不可或缺。而且在组织动员、筹办大事、抗御危机、发展重点等时事,具备长久形成的足够能力与优势。在全球经济下行、需求疲软的大环境下,去年的中国经济依然保持6.9%的增长,其重要原因也在于此。然而也不得不承认的是,随着体制改革循序推进,经济总量不断扩大,产业结构丰富多样,市场因素日益复杂,昔日仿佛万能的政府点金之手,今朝似乎亦已力不从心。

令人高兴的是成长中市场机制,已经在中国经济发挥相当重要的作用。尤其当政府干预或忽视某些重要领域或阶段的经济活动时,却发现以往走出很远的体制改革与机制转换,其累积效应使得虽然尚不完善的市场体系,已然具备一定的反向稳定调整和自我修补恢复能力。因此人们普遍从中认识到,企业及微观层面的事情确实就应还给市场,并只能还给市场,更应敬畏市场的力量与作用,而政府在政策及宏观层面更可大有作为,政企分开,政资分开,简政放权,回归本位。金融市场及行业的繁荣与失序并存,去年发生的股市剧烈波动,互联网金融特别是P2P乱象,以及市场失灵的“国进民退”,种种现象都可作为例证。学习借鉴中国当年在工业与商业领域,实现经济管理体制改革的宝贵经验,勇于正视困难问题,敢于打破利益格局,因势利导,破立同步,既可全获改革红利,更可激发市场活力,为中国经济创造新的动能。

展望未来,喜忧参半,近期困难,看好长远。由于部分行业产能过剩的负担,部分地区经济滞后的拖累,中国经济可能还有一波短期探底下行。但中国政府由于拥有足够的资金、手段和经验,完全能够再次消化这些困难,将经济增长速度保持在必要合理的区间,因此整体经济形势不会大起大落。

具体到投资细分领域,则以大消费行业为优选。虽然原材料等重化工领域去产能压库存的举措,互联网金融理财泡沫特别是P2P频频出事消息,近来常常在媒体上夺人眼球。阶段性的金融市场波动,也直接造成房地产市场起落。但在居民储蓄率超高的中国,中产阶级及富豪阶层的消费能量尚未有效释放,经济形势阶段性的好坏,不会影响中上阶层的消费水平,更不会降低优质生活的追求,以及对优质产品和服务的需求,能量积蓄良久的中高端消费品及消费服务市场需求喷发近在眼前。随着居民收入稳步增长,城镇化快速推进,互联网日益普及,消费层次由温饱型向全面小康型提升,消费形态由产品型向服务型延伸,消费习惯由线下转为与线上结合,消费升级空间巨大,有效供给明显不足。因此围绕吃喝玩乐、衣食住行、健康生命、高尚生活的广泛消费需求,投资于优质优价回归传统的品牌,结合先知先行共享创新技术的应用,应是深入运营型PE的优选首选。

站在世界看中国经济,其以足够众多的人口,足够巨大的总量,足够多样的消费,足够广阔的市场,足够广泛持久的经贸中间体作用,今日依然并永远是全球商家必争之地。虽然近期出现外汇资金外流,但更多是国外的投资套利机构根据全球金融市场变化,灵活调整资金配置的正常应对。值得注意的有趣现象,伴随对中国经济一轮又一轮的担忧,西方主要财经媒体对中国经济的报道,却是数量越来越多,篇幅越来越长。中国举办的发展高层论坛和博鳌年会,一年比一年红火热闹,各国的企业家、金融家、投资家蜂拥而至,甚至一席难求,来宾中包括了绝大多数全球性金融机构和跨国公司领导。近日著名保守的中东欧最大金融集团PPF及消费金融公司捷信也宣布,未来两年增加在中国投资。中国经济在全球经济中的影响力,以及全球资金在中国资产配置的重要性,对于各国政治家、企业家、金融家已是不言而喻。

我们特别需要关注的中国金融服务业,正在由粗放型向精细化转变。金融对产业的投资,也在由数量型向质量型转变。金融及股权投资领域,境外资金仍在持续不断的注入。具体到与我们密切相关的中国PE行业,在经济转型、市场转轨、强力反腐的多重作用下,利用初期不完善市场体制及交易机制投机的历史经验不可复制,选跑道抄近路的套取暴利游戏已经结束。真正具有综合实力PE机构,开始可以更有效地依靠雄厚的专业投资能力,整合差异化的本土资源,赢得刚刚开始的PE马拉松比赛。应该相信,大浪淘沙,坚持擅长领域深入运营,专业创造价值的控股型PE机构必将脱颖而出。在成长型基金在中国不复风光之时,多家全球著名的buy-out基金,最近高调宣布中国团队新的负责人上任,更加资深更加本土化的高层人事安排,意味着外资机构在中国力量的特别加强,以及战略布局的重要调整,走在前列的并购型基金有望在新一轮竞争中,争取到难能宝贵的先发优势。

在未来十年中国的投资中,更需要看清经济走势有及影响因素,看准深入经营的聚焦行业,找准所投资的目标企业群。相对面言,科技创新领域将最令人兴奋,但不确定风险确实很大。而在商业创新领域,特别是符合产业方向,适应市场需求,在企业层面的商业创新,最有希望带来稳定可观收益。优秀的PE机构介入,特别是以控股方式实现战略把控,其发挥的效应可以充分体现在管理提升,营销改善,成本降低,效益提高上。中国经济的阶段性下行,金融市场周期性不景气,为PE拿到成本低廉的资金创造了条件。同时产业转型升级中的增长缓慢,也为以合理价格收购企业股权,特别是以平台形式,连环收购二线活跃城市一线优秀品牌创造了机会。

虽然在中国,金额庞大的投资标的,潜力巨大的新兴产业,垄断利润高的行业,明显领先的企业,依然更多是国有资本的投资范围。其所采取的投资策略,也更多是大进大出,群进群出,只有少数民营和外资机构才能偶尔分一杯羹。但在市场的广阔远方,却有更为迫切、实际、深入的需求。在各种富豪榜之外,中国还有许多隐形富翁,同时也是细分行业成熟企业的主人。大多数年届六旬的他们,面对难以适应新的市场竞争与金融环境,公司经营压力日益增加,家族企业掌控接班无人的挑战,开始愿意将企业控制权交给控股型PE机构。成熟的金融产业家担起发展重任,改善管理,提高效率,拓展市场,优化激励,增加效益,并与资本市场有效对接,为股东与投资者创造共同成长的超常收益,这正是市场化PE机构价值所在。同时一批手里握有大量现金的退位企业家,借助家族理财渠道或方式,转身为PE基金的投资人,分享专业资产管理的成果,实现社会财富投向与专业能力发挥结合,各得其所,互利共赢。在这个过程中,金融围绕在实体左右,以至合为一体。资金转换为企业股本,以资本杠杆和智力杠杆,适应市场变化,撬动产业资源,提升资产价值。因此只有通过深入耕耘于企业及产业的PE,才能获得长期稳定可观的收益。

真实的机会,来源于真实的需求,留给有充分准备的人。真实的收益,来源于真实的供给,留给有经验积累的机构。PE正是在企业发展中,能够把握真实需求,创造真实供给的专业力量。因此坚持专注投资中国,专注投资大消费行业,专注专业创造价值,对于追求长期稳定回报的全球投资者,对于长期积累消费领域控股投资经验的云月,都是明智正确的最佳抉择。

Lunar | 3月 31, 2016

智慧城市未来建设与发展 改变人们消费与生活习惯

中国在“十三五”规划中,将智慧城市建设列为重点支持项目,不仅是希望解决日益严重的城市资源短缺、环境污染、交通拥堵、安全隐患问题,而且争取为解决人们生活中优质产品短缺、服务效率低下、幸福体验不足等更深层次的问题,提供必要的系统性环境条件,更是为了与城镇居民的富裕水平与知识水平提高,生活理念与消费观念转变相适应。
 
智慧城市建设不是游离于社会生活之外,而是将持续改变人类的日常生活。就宏观产业格局而言,智慧城市建设过程与能源、环保等战略新兴产业发展多有协同,而从微观社会生活而言,对于医疗、交通、物流、金融、通讯、教育等领域,以至社交、媒体、产品及服务体验等生活内容,都具有直接明显拉动消费的作用。
 
智慧城市建设不仅仅涉及某个单一领域问题,而是发展经济、改善民生的系统化动力所在。智慧城市本身就是众多产业的集成,需要根据网络、基础设施、环境等城市功能的核心支持系统,对应人所需要及其提供服务的不同产业,延伸到医疗、教育、政府运行、公共安全,以及与城市运营密切相关的一切工商业活动的智能响应,实现城市精细化管理,资源集约化利用,生活智能化改善。
 
智慧城市的发展,其广泛影响和潜在价值在于城市+智慧,但更多体现在智慧+产业。例如,通过以金融云、交通云、物流云、健康云等为核心的平台层提供云计算及数据处理,以仪器仪表、监控设备、传感设备为主的感知层获取海量数据,以智慧政务、智慧建筑、智慧交通、智慧公安、智慧检验、智慧监测、智慧医疗、智慧教育等领域的不同行业应用层,实现业务、技术、平台的价值融合,形成跨产品、跨系统、跨行业、跨门类的复合平台架构。
 
智慧城市的系统化建设,对人们的消费和生活习惯,将产生革命性冲击,任何一个有前瞻性的工商企业都需要积极应对。智慧城市运行的系统、产品与服务,所面对的是具有差异化真实需求的个体。实体产品的销售将变得更为智能,而且更为依托智慧化的服务实现。智慧购物带来的新型体验,将改变城市商业的形态。包括标准化食品,乃至个性化服装,都将借助更加智能化、人性化及高科技的手段,实现产品研发准确性和商品销售成功率的提高。与之相配套的智慧交通、智慧物流及智慧仓储,也将极大影响厂家的生产布局和成本构成。
 
成熟的智慧城市将重新构建真正的大消费行业,消费产品与消费服务将更为紧密结合,智慧养老+智慧医疗+智慧医药,智慧旅游+智慧健身+智慧体育用品+智慧文化产品,智慧养育+智慧教育+智慧娱乐,如是等等消费领域中,厂家所提供的餐饮、食品、药品、服装、生活用品以及延伸服务项目,都将通过智慧城市信息数据系统,不断及时反馈,不断优化设计,不断调整供给。任何一个面对消费者的工商企业,商业决策和市场运作,都将必须依靠智慧城市大数据的系统支持,从中发现需求的变化,进行动态的调整,而不再是仅仅依靠样本式调查、推理式研究和探险式变革。
 
智慧城市发展不是孤立的,全方位多层次的金融支持是必备条件。我们要做智慧的投资,就是投资于智慧城市及智慧产业,以及相关的企业、产品和服务。尤其是满足人们消费习惯改变,生活水平提高,与智慧城市现阶段发展相匹配的投融资需求。首先政府的开发性金融,将起到基础性的引导作用,其次政策性银行在支持城市基础设施建设上应有作为,相应的商业银行在企业间接融资上可有作为,进而创业机构在创新领域大有作为,专注性的投资机构则在产融结合的股权投资上最有作为。 
 
我们今天所提出的问题,中国新型城镇化势在必行,城市扩容迅速,消费潜力巨大,面对上百个上百万人口的城市群,立志为消费者提供更好产品更优服务的中国企业们,你们做好准备迎接智慧城市发展带来的机遇了吗?
Lunar | 2月 29, 2016

684

 
 
Lunar | 9月 29, 2015

引领牛群前行

近期,AVCJ对云月管理团队就永红食品投资案例进行了采访。相关文章于2015年7月21日发表于AVCJ周刊。
 
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Lunar | 7月 21, 2015