Celebration of a strong 2016

This Chinese New Year, we celebrate the 15th anniversary of China’s accession to the World Trade Organization. GDP per capita now exceeds US$8,500, up from US$1,200 in 2001, and the World Bank classifies China as a middle-high income society. Morgan Stanley believes China will achieve high-income status by 2027, yet China only ranks as the 75th richest nation per capita on earth. There is still a long way to go.

Highlights from our businesses
The strength of the Chinese consumer delivered for our companies this year, dwarfing any drag from the more sluggish aspects of the broader economy. Our businesses continued to grow revenue, with profits rising and the following notable accomplishments:

– Yeehoo ranked as China’s top babywear brand, tripled its November 11 Single’s Day e-commerce revenue, and attracted numerous suitors
– Castle Snacks completed two further acquisitions and reached domestic-IPO scale
– Lao Heng He quadrupled e-commerce sales growth, and doubled its traditional channel sales, two of our most important KPIs

Exits and distributions
We had success translating momentum into exits and generated distributions from several of our businesses during the year, which in total should return limited partners a substantial amount of capital. In most cases, comparable valuations for our businesses rose considerably, which will drive further uplifts in valuation. While we generally do not underwrite based on multiple arbitrage, we believe it presents us with tremendous optionality for additional upside.

Capital committed to new investments
We committed more than $100 million to new investments during the year. We were most aggressive in buying snack food companies, with the acquisition of Yao TaiTai, Orchard Farmer, and LifeFun. We also closed our investment in Honworld.

While this represents a growing amount of investment for us, it is still small compared to the size of the opportunity we are addressing. Far too small in fact. In critiquing our own performance, we believe that we have left too many opportunities sitting on the table, where we could have leveraged our platforms and driven growth at reasonable valuations. In babywear, for example, there were several large acquisitions we should have made, where investment and execution risk could have been mitigated by leveraging our market leadership. We missed similar opportunities in snack foods. We will work to better present these investments to our investing partners in the future, and ensure that we do not miss chances like these again.

Pipeline and investment focus
You will hear more from us about baby- and kids-related businesses, snack foods and condiments. Our team has strong conviction that our foothold in these sectors is an enormous opportunity to put more capital to work and deliver investment gains. We have about a half-dozen new platform concepts under serious consideration in areas like early education. We believe that we can leverage the large base of VIP customers we have built up through our Little Star Brands platform and provide Chinese families with more professionally run, higher quality educational services to compliment the clothing and supplies that our brands provide. We look forward to discussing similar ideas in travel, cosmetics, and other sectors with you soon.

Risk factors
We begin the year with more of the same concerns over a potential credit bubble, the weakening RMB, and the increasing the risk of some form of trade war. Domestic politics will also be a factor as the quinquennial process of making leadership appointments, including Xi Jinping’s likely successor, will occur.

Goldman recently postulated that a hard landing is likely over the coming three years. Morgan Stanley takes a different and very bullish view on China, believing that a shock will be avoided and a focus on domestic consumption and services will lead to high-income status by 2027. So, Goldman fears a crisis, Morgan Stanley urges focus on the long term positives, and, at Davos last year, George Soros said he was no longer expecting a hard landing, but already “observing it”! From what we see in our businesses, we believe that a series of soft landings occurred in 2008-09, 2012-13, and 2016. Together, these may be the speedbumps that slow growth, lower valuations, accelerate restructuring, and prevent the economy going off the rails. For now, we concur with Morgan Stanley (“[they are] able to navigate [it]”).

As for our investment strategy, we believe that for so long as China remains underdeveloped, with a high savings rate, reasonable asset prices, and a growing middle class of aspirational consumers, the opportunity to buy good consumer-focused businesses with the potential for growth at reasonable prices is compelling. We remain convinced that putting capital to work and mitigating risk through our operational efforts, disciplined focus, and ability to leverage control is a wiser course of action versus remaining underinvested.

Potential surprises
Readers of our year-end letter (and of Nostradamus’ works) want predictions. Below is a recap of how our forecasts from last year fared, and the trends we believe remain in place based on the feedback we receive from our businesses, management teams and dealmakers:

Last year we forecasted that the impact of one-child reform would kick in. And it has. CLSA recently reported that China’s birth rate recovered to 12.95% in 2016, the highest since 2001. Expect the birth rate recovery to continue near term with 18-20 million new-borns in 2017-2020 – a “mini baby boom” that will drive consumption. We also predicted liberalization of the Hukou System would fuel further urbanization and internal migration, which was premature but remains low-hanging fruit to drive future consumption, and we believe it will occur soon.

We believed that the upper middle class would surprise and deliver non-linear growth rates of premium consumption in areas such as healthy food, overseas travel, education, healthcare and higher quality apparel. This trend continues. Each of China’s online shoppers will spend US $473 on foreign goods this year, up from $446 in 2015. Luxury brands like LVMH, are reporting “better momentum after a tough 2015” as are Re?my Cointreau and Kweichow Moutai. “Re-shoring” of luxury is accelerating as China cuts duties on luxury goods imported through official channels, and cracks down on “daigou” (overseas personal shoppers unofficially bringing back grey-market goods). This dovetails with our channel checks that show better sales domestically, but weakness in places that cater to daigou, like Hong Kong.

We were correct in foreseeing that the weaker RMB and lower equity valuations would fuel M&A. The demand to acquire good companies we control is positively impacting our portfolio, although the weaker currency has led to outflows for China-focused fund managers, and macroeconomic concerns for investors globally. We expect the currency will continue to experience a managed decline, and that it is the volatility, not the absolute level, of the RMB that most concerns policy makers. The market will grudgingly conclude that China has the growth, reserves, policy tools and force of will to bring the RMB in line with fundamentals while avoiding overshooting to the downside.

We also called the narrowing of the valuation gap between domestically listed A-Shares and Hong Kong-listed H-Shares, especially in the consumer sector, although our belief that this would be fueled by a rebound in the valuations of H-Share consumer stocks, which traded sideways, was a bit off. For the coming year, we anticipate that the stock-connect, which provides domestic Chinese investors access to reasonably-valued Hong Kong listed companies and, indirectly, foreign currency exposure, will become too tempting to resist and offer reasonably priced yield, versus the very expensive growth on offer elsewhere.

We overstated the risk that businesses and startups in China “losing more to sell more” would rattle investor confidence. Enough unicorns were minted to prove us wrong. Going into the New Year, we still see an overabundance of capital searching for a home, especially in early-stage venture-land. Growth is overvalued, but expect nonsensical start-up valuations and the general dodginess in industries like peer-to-peer lending to persist for a while longer. Domestic equity valuations will also remain high. While the local markets are imperfect, the trend toward higher quality listings, better regulations, greater institutional participation and more overseas involvement combined with China’s extremely high domestic savings rate will keep valuations robust.

Finally, we would like to recap our priorities for 2017:

First, we will continue making distributions and complete further closings for the exits we commenced in 2016. We believe we can do this while ensuring that these companies continue to grow.

Second, we aim to sell down our last two remaining investments in LCP-II, our vintage 2008 fund. To this end, we are off to a good start in 2017.

Third, we will optimize our remaining investments in LCP-III to achieve higher valuations, generate distributions and achieve industry-leading returns.

Fourth, we are taking advantage of the platforms we currently own to invest more capital, with a target of exceeding the $100 million we committed last year into further snack foods, sauces and baby/kids-related businesses and one new platform.

Fifth, we continue to build Lunar’s franchise and reputation.

Lunar | 12月 31, 2016

The crystal ball: Predictions for 2017

From LPs looking for realizations from GPs as well as paper gains, to the factors contributing to more buyout opportunities in China, industry participants give their perspectives on the year to come:
Sentiment has been more subdued on Asia. You will see some fundraising noise that comes through from the timing of some large funds coming to the market, so maybe the figure to focus on is the average over two or three years. But even allowing for that, fundraising is probably down.
There is also a theme of consolidation of GP relationships by many LPs. This has benefited some of the larger funds that are able to raise more money, but some smaller managers are feeling the negative impact of that consolidation. You will see continue to see some oversubscribed funds in the mid-market space, but by and large, the days when you would be able to command a strong fundraise as a new face on the block or as a re-up without much in terms of realizations are past. LPs are more demanding in what they are looking for. Your DPI [distributions to paid-in] matters; your ability to justify your fund size over and above what you raised last time matters.
Regarding China specifically, there are some issues at the political and economic level, but there remains a fair amount of optimism. As long as managers are able to command capital this is quite a good investing environment – there is less competition and more time to conduct due diligence.
I also see some optimism in India, despite the recent demonetization efforts. Fewer firms are able to raise capital, particularly if you strip out VC, but pockets of capital have been raised locally. There is increased realism as to what it is practical to expect of foreign institutional investors, so if managers can rely on local investors to get going that is a sensible strategy.
Australia and Korea will hopefully both continue to be steady, and Japan continues to defy expectations and perform well despite a difficult backdrop in terms of macroeconomics and demographics. This could well be Japan's year in terms of private equity fundraising, because a number of firms are coming to market at the same time.
The pace of deployment has continued on an upward trend, especially in the small to mid-market deal space, and we see signs of that continuing to be robust going into 2017. The pipeline will continue to be driven largely by founder-owner succession deals and some corporate spin-offs.
One thing we see going forward is that succession deals will be coming not only from ageing founder-owners but also those from in their late-30s to mid-40s as they realize the merits of working with private equity firms based on word of mouth and what they're seeing in the market. That's a change in perception that has accelerated over the last year or so and will be driving deals in the future.
Corporate divestments are a bit more cyclical in nature and I think we're at a point in the cycle now where Japanese companies are feeling more pressure to divest and focus on shareholder value. Additive to that, improvements in corporate governance initiated over the past year that make it easier for private equity to participate in larger deals are beginning to take effect with these companies.
We are seeing appetite and opportunity to sell to Japanese strategics in 2017 and foreign companies will begin to take on a role as buyers as well. There are different angles to achieve double-digit growth in Japan, so private equity will focus more on creating value with differentiated products, bolt-on acquisitions and helping companies go overseas.
From next year, it will be a much more challenging environment for private equity in Korea, even for deals over $1 billion, because the spectrum of competition is going global and even the smaller funds will be able to source additional money from LPs through co-investment. LPs, who have witnessed a number of high-return mid- to large-cap deals in Korea, are pushing the global funds to build up their teams in the country and secure more deals.
For the next 3-6 months, the current political instability may have a negative impact on private equity markets because it's not just about politics – it relates to concerns that Korean conglomerates may be accused [of improper conduct], which could delay the important decisions such as portfolio adjustment or M&As.
However, I still think deal flow will be strong for the next 18-24 months because there will be activity in the distress market. There will also be a lot of secondary deals because many PE portfolio companies are mature.
In addition, there are still a number of mid-cap companies that need support for globalization on top of growth capital. PE funds will continue to have a preference for consumer and retail despite the potential macro headwinds, but there are some contrarian views that they could actually be more active in industrial sectors due to cheaper prices. More investors could turn companies in those sectors around with creative deal structures, drive consolidations, or shoot for an industry cycle play.
The issue will be exits because domestic strategic investors are quite selective regarding local deals and pursue cross-border opportunities more actively. We have also never seen any IPOs for majority-owned PE portfolio companies and we've had some political impasses between China and Korea making it hard for Chinese strategics to do deals in Korea. Unless we resolve the political issues with China and the stock exchange allows companies majority owned by PE to go public, it is likely exit activity will face challenges in 2017.
The thing that has struck me most in the last year or two has been the mood swing of many international investors. Those of us within the region continue to believe that Asia represents a very interesting place to invest private equity capital, if done intelligently, but globally the mood seems to have swung broadly against the region as an investment destination. The perhaps excessive enthusiasm of a few years ago has gone away and been replaced by excessive pessimism.
Of course, this can actually create some interesting opportunities, because reduced capital inflows can also reduced competition for deals, potentially making entry valuations more attractive. But the pessimism makes it very challenging for GPs to raise money, especially those still trying to prove themselves.
For the last year or so now, managers seeing fundraising success are those that have proven an ability to get money back to their investors. An attractive TVPI [total value to paid in] alone is not sufficient. Investors want to see distributions, an area in which Asian funds have lagged peers in Europe and North America. So we've seen some of the bigger Asian GPs do really well with fundraising, because they tended to invest more in the buyout space where they can control the timing of exits, or in larger deals where they could get listings on exchanges or do some other form of recapitalization and get money back.
On the other hand, for many GPs managing smaller funds, while the portfolios may look good, fundraising has been very challenging because of the inability to show that they can actually realize returns. I think that's likely to continue to be the case in 2017.
Another development worth noting is the growth of the secondary market in Asia. Many of the funds that were raised in the mid to late 2000s are coming to the end of their lives, and they need to find solutions to their exit problems. So the secondary market is increasingly a way to get liquidity for investors or, in some cases, give new life to a GP by recapitalizing a fund or using other techniques to permit pursuit of a promising investment course.
The Australian private equity market is very stable with a consistent set of competitors, and the economy is heading into its 27th year of continual growth. We therefore don't really see a lot of change happening over the next 12-24 months in terms of dynamics or conditions.
There's a A$2.1 trillion ($1.57 trillion) pool of capital in the Australian superannuation space that continues to grow at a faster pace than the economy, so there's no doubt that investors at a macro level will be seeking to invest that. But I don't think it's going to lead to an oversupply of capital in the local market because a lot of it will be invested offshore. The superannuation funds also invest lower percentages of their funds into PE compared to global benchmarks, and I don't see that changing in the near term either.
One theme that is coming out in Australia, however, is exports of services, which has now overtaken exports of iron ore. We expect that trend to continue, especially in the education sector, which is set to grow off Asian demand. Australia is now said to be exporting more education services than the UK or Canada. New Zealand will have a similar services dynamic with probably more of a focus on food businesses and agriculture.
There has also been a good appetite in the Australian market for services-related businesses to go public. We've seen a strong IPO pipeline since late 2013, but it has tightened up recently so it will be interesting to see how that goes in the first quarter next year. That will depend on what happens in the US and economies around the world in terms of investor appetite.
One trendline is about definitely watching the leading start-ups – the Flipkarts and Olas of the world. In 2014, 2015, and to some extent in 2016, they were also the forerunners for M&A and aggregation and consolidation in this space, and if they're not strong aggregators, then what happens is M&A dies down a bit. And so it's not only the companies themselves to watch out for, but also the lead indicators on M&A activity and late stage investors coming into India. A lot of people have money invested into those companies that they cannot afford to lose. It may swing momentum away at late stage if that happens.
The contrarian trend to that is there's a lot of early stage capital with resident managers in India, whether that's Accel Partners, Nexus Venture Partners or even early-stage funds and angels, but it's far more tentative when it comes to what gets backed. The good news is that models that are more robust, that have more traction, are getting recognized and funded. India-centric or unique-to-India models got a bit of a rough ride from investors in my view, but that is changing dramatically in favor of those companies. Some sectors that we like or we've bet on already are going to get a huge uptick in the next 12 months: healthcare, financial services, education, small business technology, small business enablers, B2B enterprise and software-as-a-service (SAAS).
A lot has yet to be seen in terms of what impact demonetization has on the overall economy. I don't think it's all positive. It's going to hit discretionary spending, and it's going to slow down the economy for the first six months of the year. The full impact will roll out early in the first half of next year. And compounded with that is all the policy uncertainty. I think the government does realize that they have made mistakes in the short term, and to fix that they'll have to throw a whole lot at one layer or the other. So whether it's to facilitate trade, or to boost consumer spending, some of that is going to happen.
If start-ups are able to survive through the next year, my belief is that the end behavior, whether that's in six months or five years, should benefit new age start-ups, because a lot of the frictionless transactional activity, whether it's goods or services, is bound to move online. And anything that piggybacks the mobile internet economy is likely to benefit, if they've executed it well. So apart from payment start-ups and financial services, once you've taken a lot of cash and pushed it through the formal banking system, consumers become savvy enough to operate their cash flows digitally, and the digital service offering suddenly becomes far more viable.
Some business environment factors in Southeast Asia, such as internet connectivity, are quick to change, while others take longer. One important missing element of a healthy digital ecosystem is a stock exchange capable of providing liquidity for technology companies. Before this becomes a reality, an entire generation of equity analysts, traders and investors will have to be educated. Other important factors such as a culture of risk-taking, access to a deep pool of technical talent and availability of experienced mentors are noticeably changing, but likely have further to go.
In terms of investment sectors, although VC enthusiasm for Southeast Asia's e-commerce market – Indonesia's in particular – has subsided somewhat following an intense period of interest, an interesting group of businesses has emerged in its wake. These are the back-end infrastructure systems necessary to support e-commerce operations, such as last-mile logistics, advertising and affiliate technologies, and digital payments.
Certain industries succumb to the hype generated by the global tech ecosystem. In my opinion, financial technology is one area where the current buzz exceeds substance. While there is much talk of disrupting banks and insurers, I find that start-ups whose initial role is to support, rather than replace, financial institutions' processes are more successful in establishing a beachhead from which to advance. Separate from the buzzy fintech space is digital payments, which has been developing nicely in the past couple of years, and where I think we will see some consolidation.
Overseas investors, who deploy the majority of capital into Southeast Asia's tech companies, will continue to have a major influence over events in 2017. For example, we are seeing a resurgence of interest from mainland Chinese investors in certain markets – Indonesia and Singapore feature most prominently, but increasingly also Thailand and Vietnam. This may be why, after almost a decade out in the cold, the amount of buzz around Vietnam's tech ecosystem has risen again.
Over the last year, PE funds that I represent have become very interested in working with Chinese corporates to do outbound investments. And with the recent curb on outbound investment (not formally announced but widely reported), there is certainly doubt at least for the first half of 2017 as to what is going to happen with that flow of investment money offshore.
Some of the funds that I represent are actually seeing this as a potential opportunity for them: Because they have offshore cash available, they can provide a bridge for Chinese companies that are trying to do investments but can't get their cash out. If you figure that eventually the tap is going to be opened again and cash will be able to leave China, then if you are an offshore fund you can make money off of financing those offshore investments in the interim. Many of my fund clients are also focusing on the China NPL [non-performing loan] market, acquiring portfolios of loans and investing in companies that work with Chinese NPLs.
I think that a lot of people are finding other sorts of exits besides IPOs. There are always secondary sales to other funds. There are also a lot of people looking to consolidate businesses in certain sectors like education and healthcare, and often you can just sell your asset to somebody else who is consolidating. We've assisted a number of PE sellers in sales to strategics. In the past, maybe people would have held out and tried to do an IPO, but now they're saying, ‘Let's go ahead and sell this to a strategic.” Often the multiples are actually quite high. People are rethinking IPOs, which are really expensive to complete, assuming you are able to complete them. Indeed, when you look at the returns and factor in the cost and the time it takes to do an IPO – plus the time it will take the fund to sell its shares post IPO – sometimes an IPO is just not the optimal exit.
On the fundraising side, we still see LPs very willing to commit to China-focused funds. I think you're going to have a period with people pausing to sort out between the types of China-focused funds they will invest in and the types of funds they won't. The Chinese economy is slowing, so you can't just invest in a fund if its only strategy is to bet on growth. You need confidence that the people at the fund have real ideas and can figure out an investment strategy that really works.
Domestic consumption will continue to steadily rise – it started out weak in 2016 but ended the year very strong. You'll see that reflected in funds like ours that focus on what people eat, drink and wear. When I think of consumer I think of the mass market premium brands – it's the products and services that people are buying. I really think we will see the most success in that area, which means that strategies oriented around the consumer, mass market, and tangible qualities will continue to see good growth.
We feel very strongly that what we're doing will remain a sweet spot in terms of attractive entry valuations, less competition, and most importantly, the greatest opportunity to add value. You're still going to see enormous opportunity, especially in areas like consumer, to buy established businesses with a strong pedigree and a strong track record, and bring them into the modern age. If you're a younger entrepreneur, and you're at an early stage of running and building your business, you may not see much value-add from private equity. You also may not want to sell your business, and if you need to raise money, you might solicit PE investors but probably as little as possible. So these opportunities are difficult for growth capital to invest in, and those founders are probably not likely to do something even with a buyout firm.
But if you look from a big-picture perspective, there are approximately 12 million mid-size companies in China. And the average age of the established mid-market companies is older, as they were typically started in the 1980s and 1990s, and are now approaching 20 or 30 years of operational and brand history. A lot of those businesses are run by people who are thinking about what's next for their company, beyond their own lifespan, and certainly beyond their tenure as CEO and founder. To the extent there will be competition, it's going to come from domestic Chinese companies rather than from other private equity firms, but they'll focus a little more on the larger and slightly more mature end of the sector.
Increased competition is narrowing the upside in minority growth transactions. This is not necessarily driven by other private equity firms, because there hasn't been that much capital raised, but from from increasingly-developed, deeper, more robust capital markets that are better positioned now to provide meaningful financing. A well-run company looking to raise money, can now get it at very reasonable prices. You don't have to give an arm and a leg to a growth capital fund like you had to five or ten years ago. That investment approach will be challenged, and I don't see the trend reversing any time soon.

Lunar | 12月 13, 2016









站在我所服务的云月投资Lunar Capital角度看,也是站在股权投资机构个体实践的立场看,中国的股权投资行业,随着中国经济形势与环境进入新常态,也确实到了需要脱胎换骨的时候。云月投资是一家国内外知名的并购基金,长期专注于大消费行业的控股投资,业内所讲的“云月模式”,就是云月的专注细分领域投资业绩与深入运营成功经验的总结。我们在与企业家和投资者合作与沟通过程中,发现他们的需求、追求与要求,与前些年发生了很大的变化。企业家盼望来的是拉车的投资人,拒绝搭便车的投机者。投资者不再相信神话,逐步真正理解和接受风险与收益匹配的投资逻辑。如何恢复和展示整个行业的诚实、可靠、专业、价值创造的特质,正是有责任有担当的PE机构当务之急。









Lunar | 9月 30, 2016





由清华大学发起的一项调查证明了中国人正在承受巨大的生活压力 – 88%的受访者认为自己“十分疲惫”,53%对自己的精神和身体健康不满意。另外,60%的白领认为自己的压力大多来自于购房以及还贷。








Lunar | 7月 31, 2016


在中国经济向消费转型之际, 国内企业正在将营销费用越来越多地投入到新媒体之中去。中国企业对新媒体的投入占整体营销投入的百分比从2012年的20%增长到2015年的43%, 并将于2016年达到60%。作为数字内容与移动互联网的结合体,新媒体与传统媒体最显著的区别在于它强化了用户之间的交流和分享,而不仅仅是像传统媒体那样单向传播信息。随着人们获取信息、处理信息、运用信息和发布信息的习惯迅速改变,中国消费品企业也很快相应地改变了营销战略,致力于更有效地与目标客户互动。最近的一项调研显示,中国消费者对新媒体的关注度,由2012年的不到30%,上升为2015年的72%,并将很快突破80%。



以往在传统媒体上的投放广告后,通常需要数周乃至数月时间去获取数据并分析方案的成功与否。如今在新媒体时代,企业能够通过各种跟踪工具以及第三方服务实时获取浏览量、点赞数、转发数等重要指标,从而不断通过少量多次的投入改进自己的营销方案。同时,实时反馈可以帮助企业及时止损,提早舍弃那些并不能带来高回报的营销方案。 中国著名的新晋白酒品牌“我是江小白”,在2015年一年内执行了超过1000个与产品或品牌有关的改进,其销售在过去的五年中达成了200%的年均复合增长率。






新媒体的核心在于分享和评论,因此口碑效应在这个新媒体的时代比任何时候都要更加重要。消费品企业努力改善产品质量的同时,也在积极寻求网络名人作为自己的品牌代言。在云月的旗下企业中,I Pinco Pallino和小星辰品牌集团充分地利了名人效应,在社交媒体平台获得了极高的关注度。



Lunar | 5月 30, 2016




他在去年12月把这些股份卖给了总部位于上海的云月投资公司(Lunar Capital Ltd.)。“公司遇到了瓶颈,”姚卫忠上周接受电话采访时说,“我到了这个年纪已经没有足够的精力,我的孩子不愿意接手生意。我也不能强迫他喜欢。”

从金融中心上海到煤炭资源丰富的山西省,面临接班问题和经济放缓双重挑战的中国企业家越来越愿意把公司的多数股权转让给收购公司。这表明市场发生了根本性的转变,从1994年中国对私募股权投资公司开放以来,为了能分享中国经济高速增长的成果,凯雷投资集团(Carlyle Group LP)和KKR集团(KKR & Co.)等公司有时不得不放弃坚持持有所投资公司控股权的条件。



“毫无争议的是,这种收购控股权的做法在中国效果更好,回报率更高,”云月投资公司合伙人苏丹瑞(Derek Sulger)说。他表示现在依然很难找到大宗交易,尤其是在科技和教育等热门领域,所以私募股权投资公司转而把注意力放在了消费和零售行业小公司的交易上。

根据《亚洲创业投资期刊》(Asian Venture Capital Journal)的统计,涉及控股权变更的交易占去年中国私募股权交易总价值的34%,比2014年高出一倍以上。这家私募股权研究机构估计,不包括所谓的套利交易(通常涉及公司退市然后转到估值较高的市场上市),“控股权”交易金额从2014年的49亿美元增长到去年的68亿美元,创下历史记录。尽管如此,这类交易只占到中国私募股权交易总价值的13%。






中信资本控股有限公司(Citic Capital Holdings Ltd.)驻香港的合伙人信跃升(Eric Xin)说,他的公司正在与一家有20年历史的纺织企业谈判,这家染织企业主要向中东地区出口产品。由于该公司面临近年来销售额下降、劳动力成本上升和人民币升值的多重压力,现年46岁的老板想全部售出股权,搬到英国生活,打算让他的一个儿子在英国受教育。


在许多情况下,促使中国企业家出售股权的纯粹是经济因素。2014年,中信资本收购了床垫制造商金可儿上海床具有限公司(King Koil Shanghai Sleep System Co.)的控股权。信跃升透露,中信资本在2013年末首次结识这家公司时,最大的股东并不想直接出售股份。半年后,由于该公司酒店业务的销售业绩每况愈下,库存越积越多,利润率降低,老板终于改变了主意。





贝恩咨询公司(Bain & Co.)大中华区私募股权基金业务联席主席韩微文说,许多小企业老板从来没有应对过削减成本或进行彻底重组的困境,“这关系到降低成本、运营效率、转变业务模式和改变自身。他们从来没有做过这种事。”





“由于中国经济增长现在有所放缓,你要用更睿智的方式经营企业。你必须更注重成本和电子商务等方面,”他说,“中国也面对着很多生活方式的问题。很多企业创始人想到温哥华生活和工作,很多人想投身于其他领域,比如研究佛学,还有很多人只想退休。” 撰文/Cathy Kit Ching Chan 翻译/孟洁冰 编辑/张晗


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